2015: North vs the South-East

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Recent moves by political leaders in the north, under the auspices of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) and the reaction of some Igbo leaders to the death of Dim Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu have revived the age-old debate over which of the two zones would produce Nigeria’s president after Goodluck Jonathan. In this report, Associate Editor, Sam Egburonu, examines the state of preparedness and strategies employed by the zones so far.

The next general election, billed for 2015, is still four years away, but it has been observed that serious underground preparations, especially for the office of the president, may have commenced in earnest.

Some political analysts have said the battle would be between the North and the South-East zones.
While the North is anchoring its claims on an argument that one of their own, the late Alhaji Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, did not exhaust the zone’s two, four-year tenures, the South-East zone, which has been complaining of marginalisation on all fronts, are saying that it is their turn to produce the country’s president,
However, other Nigerians are arguing that, if we have come to agree that a zone’s tenure should be eight years at a stretch, then, by 2015, it would still be the turn of the South-South zone.

Building on this premise, they said President Goodluck Jonathan, who hails from the South-South zone, will vie for re-election in 2015 as he would not have served the maximum eight years at a stretch.
Indeed, some insiders confirmed that primary structural and operational environment may have been put in place for effective presidential campaign of President Jonathan.

A source, who played active role to ensure his victory in the last presidential election, confirmed that the massive campaign apparatus that was used in the last elections is still in place and is being discreetly fortified for a better outing.

The source said unlike what happened during last April’s election, Jonathan’s campaign team are not going to take any political party for granted. “We are taking every state and region very seriously. The country is our constituency and we cannot afford to joke with any section. Mr. President has started very concrete initiatives, which as you know may require years to be fully implemented. An example is the ongoing revolution at the power sector and the desire to open up the oil sector. Criticisms apart, continuity should be encouraged,” he said.

He dismissed claims that President Jonathan did not and still do not have control of any formidable political structure. According to him, “Mr. President is in charge. Although he is paying more attention to national issues and needs, he has shown clearly that he is now poised to be politically relevant and effective.”

If the claims of this source are anything to go by, then, the 2015 presidential race may not be a clear cut case between the North and the South-East.

But The Nation investigation shows that the two geo-political zones are anchoring their claims on alleged promises made by President Jonathan’s camp during the last presidential election campaigns. According Alhaji Adamu Usman, a politician from Bauchi State, “Mr. President assured us last year that if he was allowed to fly the party’s flag, he would not seek re-election. This meant that he would allow the North to have its turn. I believe he would be gentleman enough to honour that promise.”

But Mazi Ukonu Ojike from Abia State said President Jonathan’s ticket is a joint ticket with the late Alhaji Umaru Musa Yar”Adua. So, the North has had its turn, there is no doubt that the nation owes Ndigbo the obligation of allowing them to produce the next president after Jonathan.
These claims not withstanding, it remains to be seen how these two zones have been preparing for this grand political battle.

The North
In the North the political class is evidently awake and ready to grab power. Since the 2015 dateline is still years ahead, preparations had, until recently, remained in the secret.

However, some aspirants to the plum job have been identified. Within the PDP in the North, popular names that have been mentioned include: Vice President Namadi Sambo, former Military President, Ibrahim Babangida, Senate President, David Mark, former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar and General Buba Marwa, amongst others.

Sources confirmed that virtually all these aspirants, including the ones serving in the current government, have well funded campaign structures with workers that are working round the clock. 

We also learnt that the aspirants had, before now, been operating individually without any formal move to be united as a zone and strategize for power in 2015.

Recently however, the region’s apex socio-cultural organisation, the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), which has been engaged in serious consultations with northern natural leaders and other stakeholders since the death of former President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua and emergence of President Goodluck Jonathan, made bolder moves to unite the political forces in the region.

The most publicly advertised effort was the recent Northern Peace and Unity Conference held in Kaduna, the traditional political headquarters of the region. The event was ostensibly organised by ACF to find lasting solution to the problem of peace in the northern part of the country.
But we learnt that beyond Boko Haram and security, the meeting was the first major outing for 2015 race and other political scheming.

Although, according to our sources, some leaders of opposition political parties, like the former Military Head of State, General Mohammadu Buhari of CPC, disassociated themselves from the meeting, alleging that they were betrayed by some leaders of the North and that it was a PDP affair, the meeting was “unbelievably fruitful in the area of political engineering towards 2015.” 

The Nation also gathered that traditional rulers from the region, led by the Sultan of Sokoto, Alhaji Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar, are putting on the table a proposal urging political leaders in the region to see beyond their various political parties and unite in the interest of the region.
This position was however dismissed by the opposition as a PDP ploy to use them again.

Plateau State Governor, David Jonah Jang, and many traditional rulers from Plateau State and most of the Middle Belt, who are allegedly accusing the Northern oligarchy of bias, are, according to our sources, yet to be convinced that the new initiative would be in their interest. 

Vice President Mohammed Namadi Sambo in a way captured the sentiment of this sect of Northerner when he said at the Peace Conference that: “It is the hope of all Nigerians everywhere that this conference succeeds in its primary objective of providing a platform for a very frank, robust and honest dialogue among members of the same family. A validity test for the quality of the discussions should include whether answers should be found to this question: How come a people who only a few decades ago would proudly proclaim their unity now see themselves separately?”
He wished that at the end of the conference, “we may well realise that this drift away from being your brother’s keeper and the new wave of strife did not happen overnight.

The point being made is that the once united North has been lately divided by many unfortunate developments. It remains therefore to be seen if the opposing forces can still be harmonised for effective mobilisation towards 2015 presidential quest.
The host governor, Yakowa of Kaduna state, acknowledged this fact when he said that the conference was a practical demonstration by ACF to actualise one of its main objectives, which is “to set up machinery for regular consultations and dialogue to ensure that issues likely to cause breach of the peace or undermine northern unity are settled amicably and promptly.”

Muazu Babangida Aliyu, Niger State Governor and Chairman of the Northern Governors Forum, held similar view at the event. “In fact, I believe that we can also think of the theme in terms of “Development for Peace and Unity” because part of our problem is the political disconnect between the elites and the people that has led to our de-industrialisation, disrespect for good governance and lack of confidence in public service, to the extent of bursting our Northern reality and corresponding myths. I am, therefore, of the view that unless we are all committed to ‘work the talk’, by signing up to the decisions on all the issues on the agenda of this conference, we will continue to have well organised events of this nature and beautiful recommendations that may not have meaningful bearings with the realities on the ground and in improving the quality of life of the average Northern citizen of this country.”

Amongst distinguished guests in attendance at the conference included former Head of State, General Yakubu Gowon, the Sultan of Sokoto and Head of the Muslim community in the country, Alhaji Sa’ad Abubakar, Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the forum, Lt. Gen. Jeremiah Useni, President of the Nigeria Bar Association (NBA), Joseph B. Daudu (SAN), former Petroleum Minister, Prof. Jibril Aminu, Bishop Matthew Hassan Kukah, and Mallam Nuhu Ribadu.

South-East
Until the sudden death of Igbo leader, Dim Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu, not much concerted effort has been made in the open towards realising the quest to produce the next president of Nigeria after Jonathan.
Of course, quest for Nigerian President of Igbo extraction is almost 20 years now.

So, though 2015 is still years away, it has always remained a major issue in the zone. More than any other major ethnic group in Nigeria, the Igbo, who fought a civil war, feel strongly marginalised in the present day Nigeria and rightly or wrongly believe that emergence of a Nigerian president of Igbo extraction would be the most concrete way of demonstrating total reintegration of the tribe after the civil war.

So more than any other time, the quest for the emergence of an Igbo president of Nigeria has seemingly become more topical with the passing on to glory of the Igbo leader and President of defunct Biafra Republic.
Ojukwu’s death and Igbo Presidency

Incidentally, renewed quest for Igbo Presidency in 2015 commenced shortly before Dim Odumegwu Ojukwu’s death. The most public function that confirmed the move to outsiders was in September 26 and 28 when the Ohanaeze Ndigbo, the apex pan-Igbo cultural and socio-political group, in conjunction with the Igbo World Congress (IWC) held the last Igbo Day celebrations in Abakaliki, the Ebonyi State capital.

As would be expected, the possibility of the emergence of an Igbo as president in 2015 was one of the major issues that were discussed.
At that meeting, Senator Uche Chukwumerije, (PDP Abia North), kicked off discussion on how to ensure the realisation of Igbo presidency.

In a lecture titled “Wake up call: Path to Igbo self – Realisation”, Senator Chukwumerije said: “It was the Niger Delta militancy that ensured that President Goodluck Jonathan became President of Nigeria, while the Boko Haram sect is being used by the North to achieve its presidency bid in 2015.”

Pointing out that that the Yoruba socio-cultural organisation, Afenifere, used the Oodua Peoples Congress, OPC, to achieve the presidency 12 years ago, he argued that “The Igbo should, therefore, incorporate the MASSOB into its system to ensure that an Igbo emerges as President of Nigeria.”

This reasoning, it seems, derives from widely held view that Igbo political leaders have so far done very little in achieving the canvassed Igbo presidency. "All they do is to talk at public forum and when the time comes for them to act as a group; they allow themselves to be divided." This was the position of Dr. Chika Ahamefule, a political economist who attended the occasion and left, as he puts it "with many unanswered questions." He told The Nation that the major problem with the current Igbo leaders is lack of strategy.

Presidency, he warned, "is not a joke. Nobody will offer Ndigbo the Number-one position on a platter of gold. Everybody wants to occupy the prime room in Aso Rock. So, the only way is to work for it. I do not also agree that there is a coordinated conspiracy anywhere to deny Ndigbo the opportunity of producing Nigerian president. We are to blame and so must wake up."

Investigations show that as at today, most of the top politicians in PDP, who have presidential status, appear not to be ready for the contest. This is because it is difficult to point to any formidable structure.

Insiders however dismissed such fears arguing that the people are ready and working in the background.